WEEKEND THOUGHT FOR ALL YOU NUTS!!!

Let’s take a shot at the market in general i.e banks, retail , technology. Is it time to go long?  Is it time to quit taking quick profits on a 1 or 2 day trade or is it time to hold stocks til your blue in the face. Well let’s ask ourselfves this questions and answer them without getting our feelings involved and without getting caught up in the hype of how the rally is here to stay.

I ask, what has changed? Let’s address the banks first. The word on the street is banks will no longer need cash infusions no longer will they dillute the common shareholder, okay, let me give you that. Now we move to the question of will their earning suffice the streets hunger for  hefty profits. If your answer is yes, I am ask this. Where will the profits come from? The mortgage business is in disarray, the credit card business is starting to show more cracks just look at american express today. Savings? Well if americans knew how to save and if they had extra funds to save then maybe but cost of good is going up, food cost is skyrocketing and forget fuel that is a joke. So I ask again, where will banks make their nice fat cash?

This last argument answers the retail question, american have  much smaller buying power and it’s shrinking as cost of all goods rise. So this leads me to believe that no way retail is in good shape.

I still say the market will be a rollercoaster. We went long (CALM) on the 23rd of April. Calm-Maine is a perfect stock to play in this crazy market. Cost of eggs has gone up in double digits in last few weeks and that is (CALM)’s bread and butter.  Plus the huge short positions in the stock provides the liquidity, got to love it.

The short on (BUCY) Bucyrus was a nice one but it came back up today with a  Vengeance.

Still love (S) Sprint for a takeover target.

Keep your eye on (MGI) Moneygram. It wants to run it just needs a good reason.

 

TIME FOR THE NUTS TO WIRE MONEY?

Is there money to be made on the back of the money wiring service? Well, in my humble opinion if you believe (MGI) moneygram is going BK you just better stay away. My opinion, no way it’s going out of biz.  Moneygram in my opinion is still a target for a takeover. Watch for the stock to start moving north once all dust settles.  Watch out for an (MGI) breakout. Remember hundreds of millions of dollars with a strike price of 2.50 were raised recently and thegroup of investors whom put up that money I am sure want to make  mint on this play.

 

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080325/20080325006379.html?.v=1

IS THIS MINNING STOCK JUST NUTS?

Well all seems to slow down except the minning equipmet maker (BUCY) Bucyrus. 31 times earnings are  you kidding me what a nice premium. I don’t buy it though I believe the stock has a downside and we will see  it.  Now, not that i don’t believe it is a strong healthy company I just think it is one of those inflated stocks. We shall see, personally i’d like to see an entry under 95 bucks. So all you traders check out the options chart the stock and you decide.

ARE THE SHORTS ROTTEN OR IS IT THE EGGS?

I have seen the shorts control and in many cases they have destroyed companies. The other side of the argument is shorts don’t kill companies dumb management does. Well that may be the case in some but I will make the argument the shorts supply the bullet and pull the trigger. Let’s take the case of Cal-Maine foods (CALM). The company blows away earning, the demand for their product is on rise, they issue a nice fat divi and well here they are trading at 5 times earning.  Have you seen the short interest lately? Ridiculous if I may say and that is the reported shorts who knows how many shorts are running around naked. In my humble opinion I do see (CALM) making a nice run in near future. Maybe the shorts will go find a new victim, seems (CALM) will be around for a while and in good financial health.

Wireless Cha Ching?

So is it time to make money in (S) Sprint? It is possible and smart money says it’s less expesive and makes more common sense for a big whale to come in and swallow (S) sprint then for the to roll out their own infustructure. Sprint(S) may prove to be a hidden gem around this area.

ARE THEY SERIOUS OR JUST NUTS?

So all the banks are hurting for capital our economy is not growing on the contrary it is shrinking and this management decides that  the best option for the (C) bank’s future is to pay out a large dividend, Are they serious. I ask this: How are your books, open them up. Don’t tease me with a divi and then later down the road stick it to me with more writedowns and more dillution by raising more capital. Show me the books!! Be a grown up about it already.  The street would respect you more if you came clean. I ask again, Citigroup (C) where is ur head? Wonder if they are just looking for a pump on their stock, makes me wonder why.